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The study area covered 1800 km 2 of Dolnoslaskie province, Poland.Modeled land use and management impacts accounted for more than 70% of the variation in observed SOC changes, and no bias could be demonstrated.There was no significant effect of climate trends since 1960 on observed SOC changes.Large increases in SOC in well drained grassland soils appear to be a legacy effect of widespread conversion of cropland to grassland before 1960.

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ABSTRACT: There is an increasing demand for evaluating the impact of specialization in agriculture on soil carbon balance.

The main aims of the study were (1) to model the impact of long-term changes in agriculture on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks at regional level using the Rothamsted C model (Roth C), (2) validate these results by conventional SOC analysis, and (3) to compare impacts of " as was " and " mixed farming system " scenarios on SOC trends.

SOC stock changes resulting from SOC inventory systems are only available for a few countries and the trends vary widely between studies.

Process-based models can provide insight in the drivers of SOC changes, but accurate input data are currently not available at these spatial scales.

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Agriculture is considered to be among the economic sectors having the greatest greenhouse gas mitigation potential, largely via soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration.

However, it remains a challenge to accurately quantify SOC stock changes at regional to national scales.

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